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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD breaks lower. Looks toward the 1.3053 level

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 08:04 AM PST

The EURUSD has broken lower on the back of German Chancellor Merkel comments that she rejects raising the upper limits of funding for ESM bailout mechanism.  The pair extended the narrow trading range and looks now toward bottom trendline support on the daily chart at the 1.3053 level. This level has been tested on 4 separate occassions with one failed break (toward the end of November).  Look for some profit taking against the level at least on the 1st test.

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Posted: 13 Dec 2011 07:14 AM PST

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US Business Inventories Come Out Same as Survey 0.8%, Prior 0.0%

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 07:00 AM PST

Report that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz for military training

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 06:53 AM PST

Sends oil higher.

Market “talk” is that the Fed is discussing QE3 at the FOMC

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 06:44 AM PST

This, like other chatter today, is pure speculation. 

The expectations is for no new QE3 at the FOMC today, but comments on it may be enough to excite the stocks and in turn the risk assets.  This is pure speculation but is being used as an excuse to explain the move higher over the last few minutes.

AUDUSD tests intraday support.

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 06:28 AM PST

The AUDUSD is testing the intraday support at the 1.0108 level. The level was a low area from earlier today, the 38.2% of the  days range and where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.  The level should provide support on the 1st test. A break below gives the bulls in the pair some pause for concern.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price rise today is in reaction to the inability to extend with momentum the low from Friday.  The low on Friday came in at the 1.0046. Today’s low took out that low by 2 pips (to 1.0044) but could not muster any additional selling.  This gave the shorts a reason to buy and they did so into the London morning session.

Chinese funds are reluctant to participate in Greek bond haircut

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 06:04 AM PST

This is “from sources”.

There is disagreement on coupon on new bonds and guarantees. 

Further, the Greek debt talks are unlikely to be concluded before February and the 90% participation by private creditors looks difficult to achieve.

Chatter in the market that SNB will keep the EURCHF floor at 1.2000

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 05:59 AM PST

The report is coming from a “US Think Tank”.  The report is unconfirmed.

There has been speculation that the SNB at their meeting on Thursday may raise the floor higher for the EURCHF.  This report is speculating that they will keep it at the 1.2000 level.

The EURCHF has moved lower on the report and is trading at the low for the day.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.13.2011

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 05:43 AM PST

Good Morning:

The greenback lost steam overnight-as investors look ahead at the Fed’s policy meeting today.  Many market participants are anticipating that the Fed will reiterate their pledge to keep interest rates at record lows.  Most feel that the Fed will not reduce any of the stimuli that they have in place.  They may possibly be able to slow down their asset purchase program, but I do not think they will do that quickly.
The FOMC will have their rate decision and comments at 2:15 PM this afternoon.

In news over the pond: 
Comments from ECB member Makuch that the ECB can’t carry out massive bond purchases-as the EU treaty does not allow the ECB to act like the US Fed. 
The markets did see the ECB out in the market buying Italian bonds today.
With banks in Europe under pressure from regulators to boost their capital reserves, many major European banks are selling some of their best businesses so that they can raise the much needed capital.  This practice will most definitely hurt future long term profits, but the banks have no choice at this time.

November Retail Sales rose .2% versus .6% in October.

Oil and Silver are higher, while Gold is flat.

Asian equity markets were lower-but Europe and US Futures are in positive territory.


GBPUSD bounces off the low for the day

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 05:42 AM PST

The bias for the GBPUSD Is down as the price remains below the 100 and 200 hour MAs but the action is non trending for the pair.  The low to high trading range for the pair comes in at 1.5564 to 1.5628 or 64 pips. The move lower in the NY session today, took the price to the low from earlier today at the 1.5564 level.  The price bounced off the level as traders are comfortable trading the range – at least  on the 1st test.  A move below the 1.5564 level will look to target yesterday’s low at the 1.55356 level.

US Advanced Retail Sales Fall to 0.2%

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 05:31 AM PST

Advance Retail Sales:  Survey:   0.6%   Actual:  0.2%   Prior:   0.5%    Revised:   0.6%

Retail Sales Less Autos:  Survey:  0.4%    Actual:  0.2%     Prior:  0.6%      

Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gas:   Survey:  0.4%    Actual:  0.2%   Prior: 0.7%

US Retail Sales comes out weaker at 0.2% for headline and Ex Auto

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 05:30 AM PST

The expectation was for a 0.6% gain for the headline number. The Ex Auto came in at 0.2% vs 0.4% expectations.

Revisions showed that the headline number rise to 0.6% from 0.5% originally published.

The EURUSD fell on news to a low fo 1.3175.  The low for the day is 1.31649. The range for the day is a narrow 72 pips.  I am anticipating that the range will be extended at some point today.  The midpoint of the days range comes in at the 1.3200 level.

Retail Sales due out at 8:30 AM ET

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 05:26 AM PST

Ex Auto, the expectation is for a 0.4% increase vs 0.6% last month
Less Auto and Gas, the expectation is for a 0.4% increase vs 0.7% last month

ECB Makuch says ECB cannot buy massive bonds without changes to mandate

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 05:22 AM PST

  • ECB can carry out operations needed to keep banking sector functioning normally even if country credit rating cut
  • Possible Eurozone country credit rating downgrade would not be catastrophic for the ECB.
  • Last week was a step forward but many questions remain open

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Dec 13th 2011

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 05:00 AM PST

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