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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD moving back and forth in narrow range

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 07:56 AM PST

The EURUSD remains in a narrow trading range  (92 pips) with the last move to the downside. The move lower has gone down to test the close from yesterday at the 1.2982 level (additional floor support at the 1.2978 level). This area is the next target to get through for the intraday traders who seem to be dominating – at the moment that is.  A move below opens the door for the possibility of extending the range to the downside that would take the price below the 1.2956 level.  Failure to break, should solicit profit taking and a rotation back higher with the 1.3002-08 area the upside resistance.

EURCHF breaks below the 1.2250 midpoint

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 07:47 AM PST

The SNB said they would not raise the EURCHF peg to 1.2500 level today – keeping it at the 1.2000 level. The midpoint between the 1.2500 and 1.2000 is 1.2250 and the price found support at this level in the London and early NY session. The price has now dipped below the level and the move ignited stops.  Look for sellers against the 1.2250 level now.  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart above will also be eyed. A move above would not be welcomed by the sellers and would likely solicit some buying interest.  Until then, look for sellers to continue to dominate.

IMF has said Spain has not requested financial assistance

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 07:32 AM PST

  • Discussions still under way regarding the use of possible extra EU money
  • They are to visit Rome next week to review economy, new budget

The USDCHF testing support against the 100 hour MA

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 07:22 AM PST

The SNB today said they would continue to peg the EURCHF at the 1.2000 level.  This helped send the USDCHF lower. However, the pair has found profit taking/dip buyers against the 100 hour MA (blue line) at the 0.9389 area.  The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 9th low comes in at the  0.9405 level.  This makes this area a support zone for traders today.

Traders will eyeing the level today.  If the price moves below the level, further downside selling can be expected.

Philadelphia Fed comes in at 10.3. Higher than the 5.7 expected

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 07:00 AM PST

Employment 10.7. This is lower than the 12 from last month.

New Orders came in better at the 9.7 vs 1.3 last
Prices Paid come in at 33.7 vs 22.8
Future Index 44.1 vs 41.9
Prices Received 12 vs 2.6

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Posted: 15 Dec 2011 06:56 AM PST

Webinar today at 4 PM: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell
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USDJPY tests 38.2% retracement but need to get above 100 hour MA

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 06:56 AM PST

The double top made yesterday in the USDJPY was too tempting to sell against in the USDJPY and the pair started a move back down. The pair has now moved below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) but did find some profit taking near the 38.2% of the move higher from the December 7th low.  A move above the 100 hour MA is needed to put the bulls back in charge. Absent that, look for selling to take the price below the 38.2% with other retracement targets at 77.633 and 77.513.

Think Tank report saying additional ECB cuts…

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 06:43 AM PST

…and other non standard measures of stimulus likely.

This is not confirmed.

The EURUSD is back down testing the underside of the trendline break.  That level comes in at the 1.3017 area (on the current hourly bar – see chart below). A move back in the channel muddies the water a bit, as it takes some of the steam out of the more favorable bias in the early NY trade.

S&P Report says US has 35% chance to slip back into a recession

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 06:39 AM PST

They forecast 1.7% growth in 2012.  The benchmark is for growth of 2.5% and above to lower unemployment. 1.7% will not do it.

Industral Production Slides, Capacity Utilization Stays Put

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 06:16 AM PST

Industrial Production Price Index (MoM):    Survey:  0.1%    Actual: -0.2%    Prior: 0.7%   Revised: 0.0%

Capacity Utilization:   Survey: 77.8%   Actual: 77.8%   Prior: 77.8%  Revised:  78.0%

GBPUSD stalls at the 38.2% retracement level

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 06:16 AM PST

The GBPUSD has been able to hold the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December 9th high to the low reached on December 14th. That level comes in at the 1.55326 level.  The level also corresponds with the low on  December 12th and the high area on December 14th.

The coming together of these levels increases the importance of the area. Staying below, gives the profit taking dip buyers a nice level to lean against.  A move above, will likely trigger stop buying with the next target being the 100 hour MA (blue line) at the 1.5552 level, the 50% at the 1.55709 and the 200 hour MA at the 1.5598 level.

The TIC Flow data was data showed a much weaker data in October

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 06:05 AM PST

The Tic Data for October were much weaker than expectations in October suggesting less appetite for US assets. The problem with the data is it is for October so it tells what happened more than what may happen. In October, the EURUSD rallied for the entire month and the move higher may have been a redistribution of assets out of the US and into the Euro. In November and so far in December that trend has reversed.

Better Jobs data sends the EURUSD to new intraday highs

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 05:48 AM PST

The better EURUSD has led to the risk appetite and a higher EURUSD.  The relatively narrow 81 pip range coming into the NY session has been extended to the upside on the better than expected Initial Jobless Claims data. The price extension to the upside will now target the 1.30639, 1.30979 and 1.3131 levels (see chart above).  Traders will likely use the underside of the broken trendline in the chart above as the support level now. That level comes in at the 1.3022 level. Stay above and the corrective phase higher can continue.

What might also support the EURUSD is the situation in Washington which once again is an embarassment.

Canada Capacity Utilization Higher 81.3% vs. Survey of 79.0% and Prior of 78.4%

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 05:41 AM PST

Jobless Claims Show Strongest Number Since May 2008, PPI & Empire Manufacturing Also Stronger

Posted: 15 Dec 2011 05:32 AM PST

Jobless Claims:  Survey:  390K    Actual: 366K   Prior: 381K    Revised:  385K   

Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3637K    Actual:  3603K    Prior: 3583K  Revised: 3599K

Producer Price Index (MoM):     Survey: 0.2%    Actual: 0.3%     Prior: -0.3%  

PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM):    Survey: 0.2%    Actual:  0.1%       Prior: 0.0%   

Producer Price Index (YoY):     Survey:  5.8%    Actual: 5.7%      Prior: 5.9%    

PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY):     Survey: 2.9%    Actual: 2.9%     Prior: 2.8%

Current Account Balance:  Survey: -108.5B   Actual:  -110.3B    Prior: -118.0B   Revised: -124.7B

Empire Manufacturing:    Survey:  3.00   Actual:  9.53   Prior: 0.61  


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