- EURJPY finds sellers against 100 hour MA
- The dollar falls on risk on buying. Technical levels loom.
- AUDUSD moves toward the next target at 1.0371
- US Manufacturing Data and Construction Spending Both Better
- New Orders and Employment better in ISM report
- EURCHF may be helping the EURUSD today
- Turkish central bank in the market selling dollars
- USDJPY moves closer to the November (i.e., post BOJ intervention) low
- EURUSD tests support against 200 hour MA in early NY trade.
- Dollar falls as traders flock to risk on 1st major trading day of the year
- US Construction Spending and ISM Data Due at 10AM
- Kiwi testing daily trend line resistance
- Spain says social security system will post a deficit in 2012.
- EUR/USD re-testing highs
- UK manufacturing PMI (Dec) 49.6 vs. 47.4 expected.
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 08:11 AM PST
The 100.29 level is the 100 hour MA, and that is well the risk defiing sellers came in and sold the EURJPY ont he last move higher. Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the fall below from the peak, has the pair back in the channel area. A move below the 100.11 (38.2% of the last leg higher), is needed to confirm a possible top (intraday or otherwise). The 100 bar MA on the chart below has been leading the buyers higher. This moving average line (blue line in chart below) continues to be a key level for the pair.
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 07:41 AM PST
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 07:07 AM PST
The AUDUSD is benefitting from the “risk on” move today and trades near the high. The pair is approaching the next target at the 1.0371 level. A move above will next look toward the 200 day MA (green line in the chart below) which comes in at the 1.0414 level today. Keep this level in mind. I would expect that longs would look to pare some gains at the level and sellers might also enter for a low risk trade near the level.
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 07:01 AM PST
Construction Spending MoM: Survey: 0.4% Actual: 1.2% Prior: 0.8% Revised: -0.2%
ISM Manufacturing: Survey: 53.4 Actual: 53.9 Prior: 52.7
September vs August 2011
ISM Prices Paid: Survey: 48.0 Actual: 47.5 Prior: 45.0
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 07:01 AM PST
Non Farm Payroll on Friday. The concensus is 150K jobs vs 120K last month.
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 06:28 AM PST
Today the EURCHF is up despite better PMI data out of Switzerland. The reason may be that the price had declined and tested the 100 and 200 day MAs which had converged at the 1.2140-55 level. Yesterday the price reached a low of 1.2132 but could not muster any selling pressure below and the price bounced. Today, the market continued the upside, moving above the 200 day moving average at the 1.2155 level. It did come down on the better PMI data (see hourly chart below), but has moved back higher over the last 4-5 hours of trading. The price is above the 100 hour MA at the 1.2176 level. I will be watching this level as support currently. Stay above and a test of the 200 hour MA at the 1.2196 level may be in order, with a move above opening up the door for further upside potential.
The rise in the EURCHF may be helping push the EURUSD up today. That pair – as outlined earlier – has marched higher. In NY trade, the price corrected to the 200 hour MA, but bounced off the support (at 1.3010). The action is more two way in NY, but most of the gains from the lows yesterday remain in tact (above the 38.2% level at 1.3038). A break above the high for the day (and topside trendline) is needed for the bulls, however. On the downside, a move below the 1.3000 would not be welcomed by the buyers today.
Perhaps there may be some price clues from the action in the EURCHF today? I will be keeping an eye on both as they may play follow the leader today.
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 06:07 AM PST
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 05:58 AM PST
The USDJPY contined its move down after falling below the key 100 day MA on the last trading day of the year. The next key support target for the pair comes in against the 76.567 level which was the low following the BOJ intervention in October. The market is likely to pause against the level on the first test. However, on a break, expect stops to be triggered. I will be watching the 76.83 are for signs a bottom may be forming. This is the topside trendline on the hourly chart below. A move above, gives shorts a reason to cover and perhaps some dip buyers a reason to stick their toe in the water. The high for the day at the 76.95 and then the 77.17 level would be the upside targets. The 77.17 area represent the 100 day MA level (blue line in the chart above) and the 38.2% of the move down from the December 28th high to the low reached today (see hourly chart below).
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 05:40 AM PST
The EURUSD rallied today on the back of better data in Europe but has found some profit taking as NY enters. The price is testing support at the 1.3010 level which is the 200 hour MA. Below is the 38.2% of the move up from yesterday’s low to the high today. That level comes in at the 1.30038 level. Stay above and the bullish trend continues. If the price moves below, look for the bullish bias to be a little tainted as traders search for the rhythm of the market in the new year.
Chatter of a possible French downgrade has been in the market which gives the buyers a bit of a cause for pause, but so far the upside is the preferred direction. On the topside. the 1.3052 level (trendline on the hourly chart above) and then the 1.3077 level is the next resistance (see channel on the daily chart below).
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 05:15 AM PST
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 04:44 AM PST
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 03:25 AM PST
The risk pairs are trading on highs with Dow futures currently up 200 points. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has traded continually higher against the USD today; currently testing trend line resistance around .788o with the next bullish target at .7907. If resistance holds, the daily target to the downside is the 50.0% line.
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 02:01 AM PST
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 01:55 AM PST
So far this session the pair has traded between 1.29723 and 1.30072; currently testing resistance at the highs. The market is showing some risk appetite in recent trading with the FTSE +63.69 and Dax +83.31. If support holds the lower target is back to the 38.2% line. A move higher may bring us to 1.3025; a support level from December 21st to the 26th.
Posted: 03 Jan 2012 01:30 AM PST
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