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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

US ISM Rises Above Prior Figure

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 07:00 AM PST

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite:  Survey: 53.0   Actual: 52.6   Prior: 52.0

St. Louis Fed President Bullard on the Wires

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 06:35 AM PST


  • Fed ‘very close’ to having inflation target
  • Inflation targeting possible in 2012
  • ‘Hard’ to talk of natural rate of unemployment
  • ‘Getting closer’ to longer-term policy issues
  • ‘Some measure of overall prices’ for possible target
  • Inflation measures do make adjustments
  • Forecasters too pessimistic on 2012


EURUSD remains pressured despite better data

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 05:51 AM PST

The EURUSD has reluctantly moved higher on the back of the better than expected US data. The recent script has been to move higher on better data-whether it is US or otherwise. The ADP employment report was clearly much stronger than expectations, and as a result we should see higher stocks (they have rebounded some) and a move into the riskier currency pair (including the EURUSD).  The reluctance to move higher in the pair may be an indication that the story line may be changing to one one that “better US data is good for the dollar/the Euro still has trouble”.

Looking at the intraday chart, the 38.2% of the move down today comes in at 1.2855. This is just below the end of December and 2011 low at 1.2857 level. I will look for sellers to defend this level today.  A move above this level anda subsequent move above the 1.2873 level will not be a welcome sign. However, until then staying below these levels keeps the bears in charge.

US & Canada 8:30AM Data Both Stronger

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 05:31 AM PST


Jobless Claims:  Survey:  375K    Actual: 372K   Prior: 381K    Revised:  387K   

Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3570K    Actual:  3595K    Prior:  3601K  Revised: 3617K


Industrial Production Price Index MoM:    Survey:  -0.1%    Actual: 0.2%    Prior: -0.1%   

Raw Materials Price Index:      Survey:  0.5%   Actual:  3.8%     Prior: -1.2%    Revised:  -1.0%

US ADP Employment Change Released with Very Strong Data, Figure Rises to 325K Jobs from a Prior of 206K and a Survey of 178K

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 05:15 AM PST

EUR/USD Falls on Positive Data

Very strong ADP Private Sector jobs. +325 K up

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 05:15 AM PST

The Challenger employment released earlier was also better with the announced job cuts the lowest since June 2011.

The ADP was higher than the NFP Private sector last month (204K vs 140K). So the gain does not necessarily translate directly into Private job gains, but the direction is certainly pointing toward a more robust number for Private and NFP jobs on Friday.

The estimates are 150 for NFP and 175K for Private Payroll currently. They are likely to be revised higher on the back of this report.

The NY Review and Preview for January 5th 1011

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 05:10 AM PST

US Jobless Claims & Canada Industrial Product Price, RMPI Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 04:38 AM PST

HSBC lowers its 2012 Gold forecast by 9% to $1850/oz

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 03:01 AM PST

EUR/USD at lowest level since September 14, 2010.

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 02:59 AM PST

The Euro reached these low levels following worse than expected monthly German retail sales, monthly Italian unemployment rate, and Euro zone industrial new order readings which came out over night. Investors are also nervous of a French bond auction which is due out later in the session as they demand higher yields to hold French debt rather than German bunds, and France is currently at risk of losing its AAA rating. Risk appetite is also softer in current trading as the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are all currently in the red.

The pair tested support at 1.28967 prior to the releases, but made a move lower after readings came in worse than expected.


SNB chairman Hildebrand on the spot….

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 02:27 AM PST

Hildebrand’s wife wapped 400,00 CHF for USD weeks before the currency was pegged to the Euro at a lower rate; the bank does’t see anything wrong with this.

  • March 10, 2011- exchanged 1.1 M CHF for USD @ .9375.
  • August 15, 2011- exchanged 400,00 CHF for USD @ .7929.
  • September 6, 2011- SNB pegged EUr/CHF @ 1.2000. 


UK services PMI (Dec) 54.0 vs 51.5 expected.

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 01:29 AM PST

Italian unemployment rate (Nov) 8.6% vs. 8.5% expected.

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 01:03 AM PST

Japanese gov’t says they will make no changes to forex policy, act if needed.

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 01:02 AM PST

No “bad asset” bank for Spain

Posted: 05 Jan 2012 12:25 AM PST

Spanish government decided not to continue with plans for a state owned bank that would hold troubled real estate assets.

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